LeBrun: Early rumblings on the NHL free agent market (2024)

As hard as it is to believe, we’re just five weeks away from the opening of NHL free agency on July 1.

The next month or so will be a flurry of activity, as always, especially leading into draft week in Vegas.

Part of what fuels that activity is teams trying to re-sign pending unrestricted free agents before they can hit the market. Deadlines force real decisions. On both sides. Conversations will start to heat up at the draft combine June 2 to 8 when agents and GMs converge in Buffalo.

It’s also an interesting summer as the flat cap finally ends. The cap will go up by $4 million and is expected to continue to increase over the next few years. So all those one-year deals we saw last summer should be rare this time around. Agents and players will be looking for more term.

To set the stage, let’s have an early look at some notable pending UFA skaters. (We’ll do the goalie carousel another time.) I did not include pending UFA skaters still in the playoffs. So there’s no Sam Reinhart update here. He’s kind of busy.

And I didn’t include every single pending UFA, people. But here are the latest rumblings on 19 players, in no particular order.

Jake Guentzel, Carolina Hurricanes

Tied with Reinhart for the most points per game among pending UFAs this season (1.15), the demand would be sky high for the 29-year-old winger, who is also a clutch playoff performer. But will he get to market?

My understanding is that the Hurricanes wasted no time in reaching out to Guentzel’s camp to talk possible extension and that there have already been a number of conversations. The interest is mutual; Guentzel enjoyed his time in Carolina after the trade from the Pittsburgh Penguins. But it’s also the one time in his career he’s gotten a shot at the UFA market. Does eight years at $8 million get it done to keep him in Carolina? Perhaps. But whether the Hurricanes would be willing to go there remains to be seen.

Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

Contract talks are underway, and Lightning GM Julien BriseBois mentioned this past week in the aftermath of the Ryan McDonagh reacquisition (including McDonough’s full $6.75 million average annual value) that he still had cap space to re-sign his captain.

But as always, we’ll see if there’s agreement on what the team feels is a fair deal for the 34-year-old 40-goal scorer and what the player and his agent do.

“Nothing to report,” Don Meehan, the veteran agent from Newport Sports, said via text message Thursday.

Hmmm.

This one could go right to the wire. Stamkos has been the face of the franchise forever, so this isn’t just about dollars and cents. I would hate to see that guy wear another uniform, but I can’t tell if they will be able to bridge the gap.

Elias Lindholm, Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. They’ve got some key expiring contracts including restricted free agents Filip Hronek and Arturs Silovs plus the UFAs, including the likes of Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Dakota Joshua, Tyler Myers, Teddy Blueger, Sam Lafferty and Ian Cole.

Lindholm struggled to find his groove in Vancouver during the regular season after his January trade but played his best hockey when it mattered most in the postseason, when he was a very effective, two-way force.

I do believe the Canucks make a strong push to re-sign Lindholm, which may mean having to clear more space out. But I suspect the 29-year-old’s price will be too high for him to resist going to market. He should receive tremendous interest given the scarcity at his position and his skill set.

Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings

Kane rediscovered his form this season after recovering from hip resurfacing surgery and signing a one-year deal with the Red Wings.

Now what?

“Patrick had a fantastic season based on where he started after major surgery, hip resurfacing, and he was able to get back to his ‘A’ game,” his agent Pat Brisson of CAA Sports said Thursday.

But where it goes from here, Brisson wasn’t ready to add anything else for the moment. Detroit remains in the mix and I believe Brisson will speak with Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman over the coming few weeks.

One thing’s for sure: Brisson will want to find his 35-year-old client some term this time around.

This one’s hard to gauge, but I feel like it’s more likely Kane goes to market July 1.

Brady Skjei, Carolina Hurricanes

I’m honestly surprised Skjei hasn’t been re-signed by now. Talks have been ongoing dating to last summer, but the sides haven’t been able to bridge the gap.

“We continue to keep the lines of communication open,” his agent Wade Arnott of Newport Sports said Thursday.

It does feel like Skjei is Carolina’s top priority on D to get re-signed. Coming off a career-high 47 points this season, a top-minute player who plays in all situations, he would be the top left-handed D on the UFA market and likely command six or seven years in term at the age of 30 and in the neighborhood of $6 million plus in salary. My guess is he would take a bit less to remain in Carolina.

Sean Walker, Colorado Avalanche

This always felt like a rental for the Avalanche given their cap situation and the fact they’ve got Cale Makar and Josh Manson on the right side. But as of Thursday, the Avalanche had made no such proclamation. They’ve got a few things to figure out over the next little while, including the uncertainty with captain Gabriel Landeskog (how will he fare when he returns?) and the suspended Valeri Nichushkin.

So the door isn’t totally closed, but I would expect the former Flyers blueliner to hit the market July 1. Can his camp get five years, $5 million?

“I haven’t talked to the Avalanche yet. We’re just going through it as a group (his agency), where all the teams are at, and we’re trying to put together which teams would be a good fit for him,” his agent Cam Stewart of KO Sports said Thursday. “Sean has obviously worked his way into a nice position to have options to continue his career in a nice spot.”

The Flyers will likely inquire, but given that they couldn’t bridge the gap in talks on an extension before the trade deadline, I’m guessing Walker’s market position will translate into too rich a deal for GM Daniel Briere.

Right-handed D are always in demand. We’ll see if Brandon Montour hits the market or not for Florida. And you’ve got Chris Tanev potentially, Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, Dylan DeMelo, Tyler Myers, Matt Dumba and Alexandre Carrier among pending UFA right-handed D.

But Walker will have a strong market, to be sure.

Jonathan Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights

There wasn’t a lot of discussion between Marchessault’s camp and the Golden Knights during the season, and the reason is the sides agreed to wait until the offseason to reconnect.

Now here we are.

Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon said two weeks ago at his end-of-season media session that he wants to keep Marchessault, which he told the player himself after the season. And needless to say, Marchessault wants to stay.

“Marchy is an original. He’s a core player. He had a career year. So he’s done everything humanly possible to put himself in a good position,” McCrimmon said. “We really like the player, and his value extends beyond what you see on the ice.

“He’s a really important leader, he’s an important guy in our dressing room. So, there’s certainly a strong willingness from both sides to have real good discussions. That’s what we’re going to work on.”

The Knights have other expiring UFA deals in Chandler Stephenson, Michael Amadio, William Carrier, Anthony Mantha and Alec Martinez. They can’t keep all of them.

“We’ll reshape our roster and be ready to have a real good team again next season,” McCrimmon said two weeks ago.

There’s lots to juggle there, but re-signing Marchessault, the 2023 Conn Smythe winner as playoff MVP, is of paramount importance. The sides are expected to talk soon. I think this one gets done.

Tyler Toffoli, Winnipeg Jets

It’s time for the goal machine known as Tyler Toffoli to finally get paid.

You may remember last time he went to the UFA market was in that wonky October 2020 pandemic year, and between the flat cap and other circ*mstances, he was a Day 3 bargain for Montreal, signing a four-year deal at a $4.25 million AAV. All he’s done since then is score 115 goals in 287 games for the Canadiens, Calgary Flames, New Jersey Devils and Jets, an average of 33 goals per 82 games. You know what you’re getting with the guy.

And while he enjoyed his time in Winnipeg after the trade this season, he’s headed to market, which is not surprising. Don’t the Nashville Predators need offense?

Matt Roy, Los Angeles Kings

The door is not closed on Roy re-signing with the Kings, but I don’t think the sides are close at this point.

“Have had some preliminary discussions in an attempt to find some common ground, and we will continue to work at it,” Roy’s agent Rich Evans said via text message Thursday.

Kings GM Rob Blake hopes to re-sign Roy, but it has to work under the cap. The 29-year-old is coming off a three-year deal with a $3.15 million cap hit.If he does end up going to market, I get the feeling he’ll be in higher demand than the casual fan might predict. Some of that is the right-shot need at play. But I know other teams value what he brings. So do the Kings.

Nikita Zadorov, Vancouver Canucks

Canucks fans fell in love with this guy, but whether the 6-foot-6, punishing blueliner stays put remains to be seen.

“We’re going to meet with Vancouver at some point in time, in the coming days, to discuss his future,” his agent Dan Milstein said Thursday. “He loved his time in Vancouver. He liked the group, the management and the coaching staff and really enjoyed it there. So we’ll get together with Vancouver, but I’m not sure what their plans are yet. We’ll just take it from there.

“If not, he’ll hit free agency and we’re going to be open-minded about other opportunities.”

Milstein also confirmed that term would be a priority in contract talks for the 29-year-old Zadorov. My guess is if they can get more term, they’ll be flexible on salary. Does he get $5.5 million to $6 million a year on the market? Depends on term.

Brett Pesce, Carolina Hurricanes

This negotiation has basically been at a standstill for the better part of 10 months between agent Judd Moldaver of Wasserman and Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon.

They’ve been apart both on term and salary, and there’s no reason to believe that’s going to change between now and July 1. The door hasn’t been closed 100 percent, and I believe there will be another conversation soon, but all things being equal Pesce is most likely headed to the July 1 market, where as a right-shot D with a steady body or work, I could see him get six years given his age (29). Can he get $6 million or $6.5 million at that term? Maybe.

Tyler Bertuzzi, Toronto Maple Leafs

There’s mutual interest in Bertuzzi returning to the Leafs, but the team is juggling a few things so it’s not clear if it gets done.

“It’s early, but it’s out there that the Leafs want to re-sign him,” Bertuzzi’s agent Todd Reynolds said Thursday. “We’ll see what happens here. He’s been a top player on the last three teams he’s played with. He’s played on the first line with the best players on each of his last three teams. So he would be coveted on the open market.

“But whether he gets to market or not, time will tell.”

Coming off a one-year, $5.5 million deal, it goes without saying that getting term this time will be important for the 29-year-old Bertuzzi.

Max Domi, Toronto Maple Leafs

There’s already been a conversation between the Leafs front office and agent Judd Moldaver of Wasserman expressing mutual interest in getting a deal done. But no numbers exchanged yet.

Domi enjoyed his season playing in his hometown. Similar to the Bertuzzi situation, term will be key for the 29-year-old Domi after he settled for one year, $3 million with the Leafs last summer. I would imagine five or six years at between $5 million and $6 million would get it done. But how does that fit in with everything else the Leafs will have to get done this summer?

Dakota Joshua, Vancouver Canucks

I just love this player. His physicality and size, kills penalties, and scored a career-high 18 goals this season. Now it’s time for him to finally make a bit of money after playing for just $825,000 this year. Obviously, he hopes that’s in Vancouver and Canucks GM Patrik Allvin has indicated he wants to re-sign him, so expect that conversation to begin over the next few weeks now that the Canucks season is over.

“Dakota had a terrific year and was impactful in the playoffs,” his agent Rich Evans said via text message Thursday. “Has developed into a player that can play in all situations and produce offense while also providing physicality. He leads all NHL forwards in hits during the playoffs. We have not had contract discussions during the playoffs.”

Tyson Barrie, Nashville Predators

I don’t know if there’s a player who’s been more hurt by the evolution of power plays, going to just one D, than Barrie, who has always been offensively gifted but found himself expendable with the Colorado Avalanche (Cale Makar), Toronto Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly) and Edmonton Oilers (Evan Bouchard) once he was no longer the power-play QB on the first unit.

Still, there’s got to be a place for him somewhere given his passing and playmaking skills.

“We are very much looking forward to free agency with Tyson,” his agent Bayne Pettinger of Apollo Athletics said via text message Thursday. “As a top-seven scoring defender over the last 10 years, Tyson will be a big get for an NHL roster come free agency this summer. Not only with his on-ice talent, but also, his veteran leadership off the ice.”

Barrie certainly is a popular teammate wherever he goes. It does worry me that the Predators couldn’t move him at the March 8 trade deadline despite trying to do so as promised. But again, his skill set remains effective. Surely there’s some level of market for him July 1.

Tyler Myers, Vancouver Canucks

As mentioned above, the Canucks have a lot to juggle with so many players on expiring contracts. But the 34-year-old Myers hopes to stay put.

“I’ve let Patrik (Allvin) know that Tyler would like to continue playing for the Canucks,” Myers’ agent J.P. Barry of CAA Sports said via text message Thursday. “They have quite a few balls in the air, but we are ready to talk to them when they are ready.”

Myers is 34, but he’s arguably coming off his finest season as a Canuck. I get a feeling they find a way to get it done here, but we shall see.

Viktor Arvidsson, Los Angeles Kings

The 31-year-old was limited to just 18 games this season because of injury, but he’s healthy now. It’s expected he’s going to the July 1 market.

“Now that he’s healthy and feeling great, I think Viktor is ready for the next chapter in his career,” Arvidsson’s agent Kurt Overhardt of KO Sports said Thursday. “He just looks forward to helping a club succeed. Guys don’t become free agents that often in their careers. He gets to navigate through all the opportunities and see where the best fit is.”

I do wonder how his injury-limited season will affect his market.

Alexandre Carrier, Nashville Predators

The sides have resumed the conversation, and there remains mutual interest in getting something done. However, I would also say that if the team and the player’s camp stick to their positions from before the trade deadline, this isn’t a deal that gets done.

So let’s see if either side moves a little here between now and July 1.

TJ Brodie, Toronto Maple Leafs

The 33-year-old blueliner didn’t have his best year with the Leafs, but he remains someone most teams view as a steady fourth or fifth defenseman.

“TJ has enjoyed his time in Toronto,” his agent Paul Capizzano of Quartexx Management said via text message Thursday. “He looks forward to playing in the National Hockey League next year, whether in Toronto or elsewhere.”

(Top photos of Jake Guenztel, Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi: James Guillory / USA Today and Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)